Reconstruction Simulator
ERS — simulating evidence collapse.
The Evidence Reconstruction Simulator models how a programme's evidence spine fails under governance, attribution and partner stress — before a real reviewer or financier ever finds the gap.
What ERS simulates
Stress the spine.
- Partner turnover and operational gaps
- Missing or late attribution metadata
- Method drift across reporting periods
- Governance authority breaks and reviewer loss
Outputs
Reconstruction results.
Result
Collapse probability
A 0–100 probability that the evidence spine fails under institutional scrutiny.
Result
Failure maps & narratives
Structural, functional and stress failure modes, with training runs for reviewers.
In the stack
Built on GEFI + governance bundles.
ERS consumes GEFI scores and the Hub governance bundles, then perturbs them to reveal where the evidence would break — used for training, portfolio stress-testing and ex-ante programme design.
Status
Scenario engine.
Scenario library and run engine in development; first stress-test runs planned with the pilot programmes.
Cross-links